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Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-02T00:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44371/-1
CME Note: Complex CME consisting of multiple overlapping fronts the first of which is first seen to the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-02-02T00:48Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The start of this event is covered in STEREO A COR2 by a data gap which began at 2026-02-01T14:53Z and ended at 2026-02-02T03:23Z but after the data gap at least one lobe of this CME is seen to the ENE in STEREO A COR2 in multiple timestamps. The source of this event is an X8.1 flare from Active Region 14366 (N13E35) that peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z and possibly also the following X2.8 flare from the same AR peaking at 2026-02-02T00:36Z. The flares are visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 131. Two bouts of filament ejecta are also seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304 in association with these flares, the earlier ejecta more northwardly directed and seemingly deflecting towards the west, and the ejecta after the second flare which is not as northward as the initial one. Arrival at L1: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 10nT at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 22nT at 2026-02-04T14:24Z. Solar wind speeds increase from ~300 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 400 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:25Z. A subsequent increase in temperature is observed from 36,000 K to 212,000 K, with an increase in density also observed around this time from 1 p/cc to 13 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-02-04T14:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-05T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44373/1
Model Inputs:
2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-35.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=267.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-02-02T12:59Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-05T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-05T05:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 58.55 hour(s)
Difference: -32.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-02T03:47Z

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